363
FXUS66 KLOX 151613
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
913 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...15/854 AM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this
week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on
Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain
will be next Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/912 AM.

***UPDATE***

Overall today will look and feel a lot like Tuesday, except most
areas will be 1-3 degrees warmer by afternoon. There is a light
offshore trend this morning that will be just enough to delay the
sea breeze long enough to warm things up a little.

Increasing northerly winds are expected in the mountains later
tonight into Thursday morning. Will likely need some wind
advisories there.

Not much change in the forecast the rest of the week. As mentioned
below there will be a lot if high clouds moving in later tonight
through tomorrow morning then clearing out later in the day.
Minimal changes in temperatures.

Winds will shift to northeast Friday resulting in a moderate
Santa Ana wind event. There is some uncertainty how much of an
easterly component this event will have, which impacts where the
strongest winds will be. There is high confidence in at least
advisory level winds, and the usual spots in the San Gabriel and
Santa Susana Mountains will likely reach 50-60 mph.

***From Previous Discussion***

The upper low associated with the forecast inside slider is not
fcst to be much further to the NE than before and only its trof
will move down the CA/NV state line. The RRFS came with much less
wind which seem reasonable but the NAM still has gusty winds
through the i-5 corridor. Low clouds should be pretty minimal
again and mostly confined to western SBA county and perhaps the
Long Beach area again. There is a chc of an eddy spinning up and
if this happens there will be more low clouds than fcst.

Thursday actually looks like it will start off mostly cloudy as a
grip of mid and high clouds stream over the area. These clouds
should slowly move off during the afternoon for SLO, SBA and VTA
counties but LA county might have clouds all day. The northerly
offshore flow is forecast to bring a few degrees of warming to the
LA/VTA csts and VLys and 3 to 5 degrees fore the csts/vlys of SLO
and SBA counties. This is a lower confidence fcst, however, due to
the amount of high clouds and 6 mb of onshore flow to the east in
the afternoon. Would not be surprised if there was only limited or
no warming instead. The northerly flow will bring in cool air from
the SAn Joaquin Vly and this will cool the far interior by 2 to 4
degrees.

High pressure rapidly building into the Great Basin in the wake of
the inside slider will quickly switch the onshore flow to the east
to offshore. The latest runs suggest about 6 mb. There will be
about 4 mb of offshore flow from the north as well. This combined
with decent winds at 850 mb should produce an advisory level Santa
Ana wind event with 45 to 55 mph gusts through the Santa Ana Wind
Corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to the western Santa Monicas). Sunny
skies and offshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to
the LA/VTA csts/vlys. Cool air from the NE will lower temps across
the Antelope Vly by 2 to 4 degrees. The lack of northerly flow
over the Santa Ynez range will cool the SBA south coast by 2 to 3
degrees. Most cst/vly max temps will end up in the 70s and lower
80s (The SBA south coast may only reach the upper 60s)

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/221 AM.

The upper level flow turns to the west on Saturday. There will
still be offshore flow in the morning but it will be weaker than
it was on Friday. The weaker flow and lack of upper support means
that while there will be canyon winds in the morning they will not
be strong enough for an advisory. Skies will be sunny and it will
be a very warm day. Look for 1 to 2 degrees of warming across the
csts; 3 to 5 degrees in the vlys, while the mtns and interior will
see 4 to 8 degrees of warming as the cool air from the interior
shuts off. Most max temps will be 6 to 8 degrees above normal.

On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold
and cut off upper low approaches northern California. The csts and
vlys will cool 2 to 4 degrees with the earlier and stronger sea
breeze. The interior will actually warm a few degrees.

No real resolution to the Monday Tuesday forecast as there is
disagreement in the deterministic mdls and a wide spread within
the ensembles. The is reflected in the official NBM forecast that
shows 48 hours of slight chc pops Monday through Tuesday. With the
low to the north the best chc of rain will be north of Pt
Conception. LA county currently only has very minimal chances of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1505Z.

At 1500Z at KLAX, the marine inversion was 1200 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was 3200 feet with a temperature of 12 degrees
Celsius.

For the 18Z TAF package, moderate to high confidence in current
forecasts. Through this evening, high confidence in CAVU
conditions for all sites. For tonight, there is a 50% chance that
CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop at KLAX, KSMO and KLGB. Also,
there is a 30% chance of CIG/VSBY restrictions at KSMX after 08Z.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in
CAVU conditions through this evening. For tonight, there is a 50%
chance that CIG/VSBY restrictions do not develop. If CIG/VSBY
restrictions do develop, timing of return could be +/- 3 hours of
current forecast. No significant easterly wind component is
expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF as CAVU conditions are expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...15/805 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination
of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday
and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds,
mainly across far northern waters & south of Pt Conception. For
Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA level
winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high
confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening
hours with a 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday
evening. For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of
SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening timeframe.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through tonight, there is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds across the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel then a 50-60% chance of SCA level winds in this
same area Thursday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, winds and seas
will remain below SCA levels through Thursday night. On Friday,
there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast winds from Ventura
south to Santa Monica and potentially across the San Pedro
Channel. For Saturday thru Sunday, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below SCA criteria for all southern Inner Waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office