270
FXUS66 KLOX 151146
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
446 AM PDT Wed Apr 15 2026

.SYNOPSIS...14/125 PM.

Dry and warmer weather is expected for the remainder of this
week. Gusty northerly winds will develop over much of the area on
Thursday, shifting to northeast and becoming focused over Los
Angeles and Ventura Counties on Friday. The next chance of rain
will be next Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...15/221 AM.

A pretty bland weather day today. A weak ridge will be overhead
with 572 dam hgts. There will be weak offshore flow in the morning
turning onshore in the afternoon (and becoming moderate to the
east). Marine layer clouds will be limited to western SBA county
and maybe the Long Beach area. Max temps will not change too much
and will end up a few degrees blo normal.

The upper low associated with the forecast inside slider is not
fcst to be much further to the NE than before and only its trof
will move down the CA/NV state line. The RRFS came with much less
wind which seem reasonable but the NAM still has gusty winds
through the i-5 corridor. Low clouds should be pretty minimal
again and mostly confined to western SBA county and perhaps the
Long Beach area again. There is a chc of an eddy spinning up and
if this happens there will be more low clouds than fcst.

Thursday actually looks like it will start off mostly cloudy as a
grip of mid and high clouds stream over the area. These clouds
should slowly move off during the afternoon for SLO, SBA and VTA
counties but LA county might have clouds all day. The northerly
offshore flow is forecast to bring a few degrees of warming to the
LA/VTA csts and VLys and 3 to 5 degrees fore the csts/vlys of SLO
and SBA counties. This is a lower confidence fcst, however, due to
the amount of high clouds and 6 mb of onshore flow to the east in
the afternoon. Would not be surprised if there was only limited or
no warming instead. The northerly flow will bring in cool air from
the SAn Joaquin Vly and this will cool the far interior by 2 to 4
degrees.

High pressure rapidly building into the Great Basin in the wake of
the inside slider will quickly switch the onshore flow to the east
to offshore. The latest runs suggest about 6 mb. There will be
about 4 mb of offshore flow from the north as well. This combined
with decent winds at 850 mb should produce an advisory level Santa
Ana wind event with 45 to 55 mph gusts through the Santa Ana Wind
Corridor (Santa Clarita Vly to the western Santa Monicas). Sunny
skies and offshore flow will bring 3 to 6 degrees of warming to
the LA/VTA csts/vlys. Cool air from the NE will lower temps across
the Antelope Vly by 2 to 4 degrees. The lack of northerly flow
over the Santa Ynez range will cool the SBA south coast by 2 to 3
degrees. Most cst/vly max temps will end up in the 70s and lower
80s (The SBA south coast may only reach the upper 60s)

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...15/221 AM.

The upper level flow turns to the west on Saturday. There will
still be offshore flow in the morning but it will be weaker than
it was on Friday. The weaker flow and lack of upper support means
that while there will be canyon winds in the morning they will not
be strong enough for an advisory. Skies will be sunny and it will
be a very warm day. Look for 1 to 2 degrees of warming across the
csts; 3 to 5 degrees in the vlys, while the mtns and interior will
see 4 to 8 degrees of warming as the cool air from the interior
shuts off. Most max temps will be 6 to 8 degrees above normal.

On Sunday offshore flow will be turning onshore as another cold
and cut off upper low approaches northern California. The csts and
vlys will cool 2 to 4 degrees with the earlier and stronger sea
breeze. The interior will actually warm a few degrees.

No real resolution to the Monday Tuesday forecast as there is
disagreement in the deterministic mdls and a wide spread within
the ensembles. The is reflected in the official NBM forecast that
shows 48 hours of slight chc pops Monday through Tuesday. With the
low to the north the best chc of rain will be north of Pt
Conception. LA county currently only has very minimal chances of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1141Z.

At 0833Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

High confidence in TAFs except for KSMX (25 percent chc no low
clouds)

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 08Z then moderate
confidence. There is a 30 percent chc of no low clouds tonight. If
low clouds do arrive they could be as early as 09Z and as low as
BKN008. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. No wind issues are expected.

&&

.MARINE...15/202 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Today through Friday, high confidence in a combination
of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds and seas. On Thursday
and Thursday night, there is a 40-50% chance of GALE force winds.
Most likely across far northern waters & south of Pt Conception.
For Saturday through Sunday, there is a 30-40% chance of SCA
level winds.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Today through Thursday, high
confidence in SCA level winds during the afternoon and evening
hours. 20% chance of GALE force wind gusts Thursday evening.
For Friday through Sunday, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level
winds during the afternoon and evening timeframe.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. High confidence in SCA level winds
across western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel thru Thursday
night. On Friday, there is a 50-70% chance of SCA level northeast
winds from Ventura south to Santa Monica and potentially across
the San Pedro Channel. For Saturday thru Sunday, high confidence
in winds and seas remaining below SCA criteria.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office