783
FXUS66 KSGX 150417
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
917 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer Wednesday with high temperatures near normal. Stronger
onshore flow will spread cooling inland on Thursday with
southwest to west winds for the mountains and deserts gusting to
35 to 45 mph. Winds turn offshore on Friday with warming for the
coast and valleys and continued cooling for the mountains and
deserts. Northeast winds along and below the coastal slopes of the
mountains will gust to 35 to 45 mph. Warmer inland with weaker
winds for next weekend with high temperatures warming to around 5
to 10 degrees above average on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Evening update...
Skies are mostly clear this evening over land areas with a few
patches of low clouds beginning to develop off the coast. Low
cloud coverage will be sparse much of the night, then the HREF has
a 50-60% probability of low clouds in the coastal areas by sunrise
Wednesday morning, clearing by mid-morning. Weak transitory upper
level ridging moving over the region on Wednesday will bring
warmer weather with highs near mid-April normals.

Previous discussion...
An area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will descend
into the Great Basin on Thursday, generating an increase in
onshore flow across the region. Gusty west winds will occur in the
mountains and deserts, with the exact speeds dependent on the
location of the low and how tight the pressure gradient becomes.
There is about a 10-15 MPH spread in wind gusts values from the
NBM`s 25th to 75th percentiles, indicating some uncertainty. A
combination of high resolution models and NBM guidance in yields
gusts 30-45 MPH across the deserts with local gusts over 50 MPH in
the mountain passes. As the base of the trough passes closer to
SoCal and over the Desert Southwest, winds will transition to a
Santa Ana wind pattern by Friday. This will bring north and east
gusty winds to coastal slope and western valley locations. Again,
the exact track of the low will determine how windy it becomes,
but wind speeds do look similar to that of Thursday in these
regions, probably closer to 20-35 MPH across valleys of Orange
County and the Inland Empire. The Santa Ana wind regime will bring
a slight warm up to the coastal basin with slightly cooler
weather across the deserts.

A transient ridge enters the picture by this coming weekend,
bringing less wind and warmer weather across the board. This will
bring highs near to slightly above average with 70s and 80s west of
the mountains and reaching into the 90s across the lower deserts.
Another large area of low pressure system will move closer to the
West Coast by early next week. Model guidance continues to show
differences in timing, strength, and placement of this system. This
will bring cooler and windier weather with the increased chance of
precipitation. How much precip and what time (if any) occurs, is
still...up in the air. Confidence continues to increase that this
weekend will be dry, but we will continue to watch a change in the
forecast pattern slated for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
150400Z...Coasts/Valleys...Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions
expected through this evening. Low clouds based around 2000 ft MSL
will develop over nearshore waters around 10-13z Wed. 40% chance for
coastal TAF sites to experience BKN cigs 12-17z. Clouds scatter
out by late morning. Low clouds may redevelop over waters and
coastal San Diego County late Wednesday evening, but coverage will
likely remain patchy as SCT-BKN high clouds AOA 20 kft move overhead.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with VFR conditions will prevail
through Wed evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts could briefly reach 20 kt Thursday afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected through
Sunday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS/APR
AVIATION/MARINE...KW

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office